The dustup between the U.S and Russia over Georgia could not come at a worse time. In the final months of a presidential election, it is impossible to keep the candidates from sounding off on the subject, and there appear to be more votes to be harvested by “sounding tough.” So Senators McCain and Obama will both line up solidly behind Georgia and against Russia, no matter what the facts on the ground suggest. American voters instinctively back the little guy, even when the little guy may have ignited the conflict by tweaking the big guy. Also, the “hawk bloc,” which never saw a war it didn’t like, is licking its chops, venting, as usual, through the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal. So we are headed for at least several months of rising tensions, with no one in the U.S. or Russia daring to appear soft.
No one in Washington wants to say it, but the days when the U.S. could call the shots everywhere on the globe are over. (Needless to say, Russia has even less clout.) Vietnam was the wake-up call, and Iraq sealed the deal. Our future lies in learning to get along with powerful countries we don’t particularly like. Bashing Russia over Georgia while simultaneously bashing China over Tibet makes no sense. “Demanding” that Russia respect the territorial integrity of Georgia sounds heroic, even noble – until one asks, “Like you respected the territorial integrity of Iraq?”
I am not trying to referee the situation in Georgia. It appears that Georgia’s President, believing he could count on Washington’s approval, decided to teach the South Ossetians a lesson, whereupon Russia decided to teach him a lesson. Maybe he miscalculated, maybe Putin overreacted (possibly borrowing Israel’s arithmetic in Palestine: you kill 10 of ours, we kill 100 of yours). But I don’t pretend to know for sure. That’s not my point. The point is, there are votes to be had – probably a majority – by sounding tough (vs Russia, vs China, vs anyone). A more nuanced position (“Let’s not blow this out of proportion. Let’s recognize that both Russia and Georgia have legitimate interests in the area”) is a sure recipe for defeat in November. Americans just aren’t ready for that.
With all our nuclear missiles, smart bombs, eyes in the skies, and armed drones, we haven’t been able to wipe out the bad guys in Iraq and Afghanistan, after five years.(Of course, the nukes don’t count, for good reason.) There are almost surely more people in that region who hate us than there were five years ago. If we bomb Iran, as many neocons urge, there will be still more. It’s a dispiriting prospect, but once the elections are over maybe common sense will break out.
